St dynamics and transmission in laboratory research [14,15]. Recent theoretical and experimental proof suggests that persistence inside the atmosphere is an significant element of transmission for avian influenza [164]. Transmission via an environmental stage (e.g. long-lasting droplets, fomites) appears to also play a part for influenza transmission in humans [259]. Considering that temperatures within the environment and within a host might be markedly distinctive, it’s achievable that the virus faces a trade-off: It can either optimize its capability to persist within a host, or optimizeModeling Temperature-dependent Influenza FitnessAuthor SummaryIt has recently been recommended that for avian influenza viruses, prolonged persistence within the atmosphere plays an essential part inside the transmission between birds. In such INK1117 supplier scenarios, influenza virus strains may face a trade-off: they need to persist well in the environment at low temperatures, however they also need to do well inside an infected bird at greater temperatures. Here, we analyze how prospective trade-offs on these two scales interact to figure out general fitness of your virus. We find that the link between infection dynamics inside PubMed ID:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20160000 a host and virus shedding and transmission is critical in figuring out the relative benefit of superior low-temperature versus high-temperature persistence. We also discover that the function of virus-induced mortality, the immune response as well as the route of transmission affect the balance among optimal low-temperature and hightemperature persistence. its capability to persist outdoors a host. It can be well-known that the decay price of most viruses depends on temperature, with quicker virion decay occurring at higher temperature [302]. Interestingly, current information [33] recommend that temperature-dependent decay rates differ amongst influenza strains. Some strains are extremely steady at environmental temperatures ( 5{200 C) but rapidly decay at higher within-host temperatures ( 35{400 C), while others persist less well at low temperatures but also have a less rapid decay as temperature increases [33]. These data suggest that some virus strains might optimize persistence within a host, while others might optimize persistence outside a host, with a possible trade-off between the two. This in turn can affect both within-host and between-host dynamics. The dynamics on these two levels interact to determine overall fitness. (Note that the data presented in [33] which we will analyze below is for different HA-NA serotypes. However, the phenomenon of temperature-dependent decay we discuss is not specific to distinct serotypes. We will therefore use the generic term “strain” throughout this study). To analyze the impact that such a temperature-dependent trade-off can have on virus fitness, we build a multi-scale model that embeds a within-host infection process within a population transmission framework. A number of theoretical studies have previously considered trade-offs between environmental persistence and within-host performance, see e.g. [348]. Those studies considered generic trade-offs and models without direct relation to a specific pathogen or fitting to data. A few notable studies that involved data looked at environmental survival and virulence of human pathogens [39] and environmental survival and growth in phages [40]. Here, we focus on avian influenza A and combine experimental data with models to explicitly consider temperature-dependent virus decay as the mediator of trade-offs. We find that for di.
